Women are having far fewer babies Here's why that matters : NPR
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In part because people are living so much longer, the global population is expected to keep rising for decades before these trends take hold, triggering a decline by the end of this century. "No intelligent, patriotic American family should have more than two children, and preferably only one," Ehrlich said in a 1970 interview with WOI-TV, warning that crowded U.S. cities faced a "fatal disease — it's called overpopulation." The world's rapid pivot toward declining birth rates and older, smaller populations can seem dizzying, especially after decades of warnings about the environmental harms and quality-of-life impacts of rising populations. "But I already look around and see so many young people are finding themselves childless, and I worry we're doing something wrong as a society." To maintain a stable population — no growth, no decline — the average woman needs to have roughly 2.1 kids.
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Reasons for the decline in fertility rates include access to modern contraception and education for women, higher costs of living and childcare expenses, and government policies around family planning. By the end of the 21st century, nearly all countries in the world are likely to have TFRs below replacement levels. Fertility rates have fallen below replacement levels in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy, and Germany, potentially contributing to population decline. This is different from what statisticians call the crude birth rate, which measures how many babies are born per 1,000 people in a given year.
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Pakaluk observes, “Cash incentives and tax relief won’t persuade people to give up their lives. Many in the current generation of young adults don’t seem totally convinced of their own purpose or the purpose of humanity at large, let alone that of a child. In trying to solve the fertility puzzle, thinkers have cited people’s concerns over finances, climate change, political instability, or even potential war. This suggests the existence of another, under-discussed reason people aren’t having kids—one that, I have come to believe, has little to do with policy and everything to do with a deep but unquantifiable human need. But so far, such improvements haven’t changed most countries’ low-fertility rates.
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"It's not that people don't like kids as much as they used to," said Melissa Kearney, an economist who studies fertility and population trends at the University of Notre Dame. Far more people in the U.S. and around the world are choosing to have significantly fewer children or opting out of parenthood altogether. "This life we're building together didn't need this other element in it," agreed her husband, Ben Brewington. When Sarah and Ben Brewington got married and moved to Los Angeles, they expected their next life step would be having kids.
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If global fertility rates eventually drop below replacement levels and stay low over a long period of time, as estimates suggest, it could lead to labor shortages in certain fields as fewer people enter the workforce every year, potentially stunting innovation and overall economic growth. Some countries in the world are already experiencing a few of the effects of low fertility. Immigration may also slow the rate of population decline for low-fertility countries, but only temporarily. Though some countries have tried to slow or reverse the trend through pro-natal policies—including cash incentives and tax breaks for childbearing, affordable childcare, and longer parental leaves—their long-term success has not been definitively proved so far.
Many countries, including the U.S., now face a rapidly aging population that could begin to shrink. “It’s really important for people in general, not just women, to know what happens to fertility over age and what things impact fertility so that they can make decisions,” she said. For now, delaying pregnancy hasn’t translated to a significant change in the rate of childlessness, or the share of women who don’t have any children by the end of their reproductive years, Gemmill said.
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